Matcha Shortage: The Japanese Perspective from the Aisles of Gulfood 2026

By T Hospitality

Walking the aisles of Gulfood Dubai 2026, the global scale of the ongoing matcha shortage became impossible to ignore. While much of the conversation around rising prices and limited availability has focused on the GCC, discussions with Japanese producers at the show confirmed that the situation is global—and far from resolved.

T Hospitality spoke with CEOs and founders of established matcha producers from Shizuoka, Kyoto, and Kagoshima, Japan’s most important production regions. Their message was consistent and unequivocal: their matcha is sold out. Several of these companies had committed to exhibiting at Gulfood as early as 2025, long before the full impact of the shortage became clear. As a result, they attended the show despite having no product available to sell.

For many, Gulfood 2026 was less about securing new orders and more about maintaining brand visibility and relationships. Some producers introduced new products aimed at the retail sector, but largely as placeholders while waiting for supply to recover. The reality, as several executives confirmed, is stark: 2026 production is not expected to exceed 2025 levels, leaving the industry collectively looking toward 2027 for any meaningful relief.

Interestingly, not all Japanese producers view the emergence of alternative origins negatively. The Managing Director of Marumatsu Tea suggested that the entry of lower-priced matcha from China and other origins could help stabilise the market. Without these alternatives, he warned, prices risk rising to levels that could discourage buyers and slow category growth altogether.

From ceremonial tea to global staple

Matcha’s transformation from a niche ceremonial tea to a global beverage and culinary ingredient has been one of the tea industry’s most dramatic shifts of the past decade. Today, matcha features prominently on café menus, hotel breakfast buffets, dessert counters, and ready-to-drink beverages worldwide. Demand shows no sign of slowing—but supply is struggling to keep pace.

According to Reuters, data from Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries shows that Japan’s green tea exports grew by 16% in volume in 2024, driven largely by matcha and other powdered teas. Given that matcha represents only a portion of total green tea output, this growth highlights how sharply demand has accelerated.

For hospitality operators and distributors, matcha has moved beyond trend status. Its alignment with wellness, premium positioning, and visual appeal has made it a reliable menu driver, particularly across the GCC, Europe, and North America.

Tencha: the critical bottleneck

Unlike other green teas, matcha relies entirely on Tencha leaves, which are shade-grown, steamed, dried, and stone-ground. In response to rising prices, more Japanese farmers have shifted toward Tencha cultivation. As a result, production reached a record 5,336 tonnes in 2024, according to the Japan Tea Central Association.

On paper, this suggests supply growth. In practice, it has proven insufficient.

Weather shocks deepen the crisis

While shortages began emerging in 2024, the situation worsened dramatically in 2025, driven by extreme weather. Heatwaves in Kyoto, which accounts for approximately 25% of Japan’s matcha output, significantly reduced yields.

Pricing data illustrates the impact: Tencha in Kyoto reportedly averaged JPY 14,333 per kilogram in 2025, up from around JPY 5,500 per kilogram in 2024, according to the International Tea Committee. Producers confirmed that large orders from key markets—including the United States, Germany, and Dubai—have been declined outright.

Policy support, but no quick fix

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture has responded by encouraging farmers to plant more Tencha, supported by subsidies and incentives. However, structural limitations remain. Newly planted tea bushes require around five years before producing harvestable leaves, meaning today’s investments will not ease shortages in the near term.

Many growers remain cautious, questioning whether matcha’s popularity will persist long enough to justify the long-term capital required.

Alternative origins reshape the market

As Japanese supply tightens, matcha from China and South Korea is increasingly filling the gap. Large international brands, including Starbucks, have adopted multi-origin sourcing strategies to maintain volume and price stability.

For hospitality buyers, this diversification ensures continuity but introduces new considerations around flavour profile, colour, texture, and consumer perception. While Japanese matcha continues to command a premium, non-Japanese matcha is becoming more visible—and increasingly accepted—in mainstream applications.

What this means for the tea trade

The current matcha shortage is unlikely to be resolved quickly. Weather volatility, long agricultural lead times, and sustained global demand point to continued price pressure through the medium term.

For distributors, retailers, and hospitality operators, the situation underscores the need for transparent sourcing, clear grade differentiation, and realistic menu planning. As Gulfood 2026 made clear, matcha remains a powerful growth driver—but one that now demands greater strategic discipline from everyone along the value chain.

Matcha’s trajectory mirrors a broader theme in the tea sector: as once-traditional products become global lifestyle staples, supply chains are tested in ways they were never designed to handle. How the industry responds — through investment, diversification and education — will determine whether matcha remains accessible, or becomes an increasingly rare luxury on the world’s menus.